Stochastic storm surge simulation and the multivariate statistical assessment of the results via Copula functions

摘要

The knowledge of the characteristics of possible storm surges is essential to perform integrated risk analyses, e.g. based on the source-pathway-receptor concept, including the storm surge analyses (source), dike/dune breach scenarios (pathway) and the quantification of potential losses (receptor). Focussing on the source part, a stochastic storm surge generator for the south-eastern North Sea is presented. The input data for the model are high resolution sea level observations from tide gauges during extreme events. Followed by the parameterization and a large number of Monte-Carlo-Simulations a large number of synthetic storm surge events is reconstructed. The latter serve as input data for the risk analyses and contribute to improve the overall results. The occurrence probabilities of the simulated extreme events are estimated based on multivariate statistics considering Copula functions, accounting for the structure of dependence overlooking the margins.