OIL PRICES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES

摘要

This paper investigates the effects of the highly volatile oil prices and the resulting fluctuations in government revenues on economic growth in oil-exporting countries. The evidence suggests that, oil price volatility does not seem to retard long run growth. In addition, after controlling for fiscal policy, higher oil prices have a fairly small long run positive effect on growth. In that sense, the resource rent is not a “curse” in itself. We find that fiscal policy is the main propagation mechanism that transmits the oil price shocks to the economy, and that seems to explain the differences in growth performance across oil exporters.