Upcoming China Emission Legislations Consequences for Powertrain Strategies, Technologies and Costs

摘要

China is one of the fastest growing global economies, but all its growth has polluted its environment with dire consequences for major cities and their inhabitants. Beijing's Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau believes that motor vehicle emission is the largest contributing factor. In an attempt to improve air quality, China will become a leading country worldwide in terms of emission standards, and combine lowest limits for gaseous emissions and particulate number. Very demanding fleet fuel economy requirements, which will reach 4L/100 km by 2025, will compound the new emission standards. With the introduction of new test cycles better reflecting actual urban driving patterns, the targets become even more challenging. OEMs must take rapid action and implement emission reduction and fuel economy improvement measures. These will have to go beyond engines and transmissions. OEMs will have to offer smaller, lighter and electrified vehicles. For China, engine, transmission and vehicle improvements are sufficient for vehicles with curb weights below approx. 1,450 kg. Heavier vehicles will require electrification. It is currently unclear how this will affect the Chinese love affair with SUVs. The cost implications are dramatic, and include significant hardware and software cost increases as well as much more complex engineering and testing activities. Even though the technology road maps exist, this presents time-critical challenges for all OEMs active in China. They need to start now with strategic vehicle and powertrain planning, and effective cost management.