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Study on the Influence of Component Uncertainty on Reliability Estimation of Multi-State Systems with Continuous States

机译:分量不确定性对连续状态多状态系统可靠性估计的影响研究

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Existing reliability evaluation methods rely on the availability of accurate component states data. They will become ineffective when the states themselves are uncertain or unknown, which usually happens during the early stages of the development of new systems. In such cases it is important to understand how uncertainties will affect the system reliability measures. Another drawback of current methods studying reliability of Multi-State System (MSS) is that they only considered the systems whose components have several discrete states. For those whose components have continuous states, these methods are not effective either. This paper considered the continuous distribution of components states during the approximation of Multi-State System (MSS) reliability and proposed a method to assess the reliability of this kind of system using Monte-Carlo simulation. This method will also be useful when we have no enough data to know the exact discrete states and related probability, and can only estimate components states distribution types and related parameters. Two examples were employed to illustrate the method. Comparison of the two examples shows that component state uncertainty has significant influence on the assessment of system reliability. Our effort will make the reliability approximation more realistic compared with existing methods.
机译:现有的可靠性评估方法依赖于准确组件状态数据的可用性。当各国本身不确定或未知时,它们会变得无效,这通常在新系统开发的早期阶段发生。在这种情况下,重要的是要了解不确定性如何影响系统可靠性措施。研究多状态系统(MSS)可靠性的当前方法的另一个缺点是它们仅考虑了组件具有多个离散状态的系统。对于那些组件具有连续状态的人,这些方法也不是有效的。本文认为,在多状态系统(MSS)可靠性近似期间部件状态的连续分布,并提出了一种利用Monte-Carlo仿真评估这种系统可靠性的方法。当我们没有足够的数据来了解确切的离散状态和相关概率时,这种方法也很有用,并且只能估计组件状态分发类型和相关参数。采用两个实例来说明该方法。两个例子的比较表明,组分状态不确定性对系统可靠性评估具有显着影响。与现有方法相比,我们的努力将使可靠性近似更加现实。

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