GIS-based Impact Assessment of Climate Change for Cropland Suitability in Korea

摘要

The purpose of this study is to estimate the amount and the distribution of agricultural water demand according to the change in crop suitability caused by global warming. Over the past thirty years, the annual mean temperature has risen by 0.7 Celsius degrees and by 1.4 Celsius degrees just during winter season in South Korea. The change in meteorology affects crop cultivars, the spatial distribution, the growing season, and so on, and it leads that cryophilic crops are shifting to northern area andcrops preferring at high temperature are being adopted instead. This rushing and unfamiliar transition in agricultural environment throws the conventional farming system into confusion. Particularly on agricultural water management, the capacity and themanagement rules of irrigation facilities are required to be rearranged adapting to the varying environment, and so quantitative analyses on crops fit for cultivation and water balance change have to be prioritized. Hence, this study proposed the process of land suitability evaluation for crop and water demand estimation using GIS. Crop suitability was evaluated with the spatially interpolated surface temperature map and detailed soil map(l:25,000 scale) of the National Academy of Agricultural Scienceof South Korea, and he temporal and spatial distributions of water demand are supposed to be investigated with the suitability maps for different upland crops including cabbage and red pepper in the end.