THE RESEARCHES ON THE QUANTIFICATION OF BULLWHIP EFFECT IN THE MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN BASED ON THE PRODUCT VALUE

摘要

Bullwhip effect is a crucial performance index in the operation of supply chain. It is very important to improve the level of supply chain operation by studying bullwhip effect of manufacturing enterprises systematically. Therefore, after a detailed overview of bullwhip effect, an algorithm to quantify bullwhip effects of manufacturing firms based on the value variance of customer demands in the supply chain is proposed in this paper. Then it discusses bullwhip effect within a two-stage supply chain consisting of a single manufacturer and many materials suppliers with the AR(1) stochastic process model for market demand. In the end, it considers the influences of modern production methods on the bullwhip effect of manufacturing supply chain in depth.