Study on Snowmelt Flood Forecasting Based on '3S' Technologiesand DSS

摘要

Flood disaster is one of the most frequently and the biggest natural disasters in the world, and snowmelt floodswhich break out in spring often bring enormous social and economic loss, especially in arid and semi-arid areas, such asin Northern Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, China. Any effective prevention or mitigation of disasters is built on thebasis of forecasting, so the real-time processing, snow information analysis, and weather forecasting, are combined into asystem which can provide intelligent reports and prewarning information of snowmelt flood duly and accurately for thegovernment departments or other organizations. So it is of great significance for flood prevention and disaster reduction.Furthermore, effective forecasting and prewarning can generate enormous social, economic and ecological benefits, sothe establishment of a real-time, efficient and reliable Flood Forecasting/Prewarning DSS, is an important part of thebuilding of non-engineering measures for flood prevention and disaster reduction. Now the integrated applications ofremote sensing(RS), geographic information systems(GIS) and global positioning systems(GPS), named "3S"technologies, have been infiltrated through hydrology and water resource management, and there are rapid developmentsand extensive applications of Decision Support System (DSS) in recent years in many fields. But there is seldomappearance of mature applications of Snowmelt Flood Forecasting/Prewarning DSS, and a shortage of study on effectiveSnowmelt Flood Forecasting. In this paper, firstly, a Distributed Snowmelt Runoff Model had been built based on the"3S" technologies, and then a Snowmelt Flood Forecasting DSS based on the B/S (Browser server) and J2EE structurehad been established, then introduced the T213 Numerical Forecasting Production from WRF mode and revised it withour synchronous field observation data. Various snow information and other basic geoinformation also had beenextracted from RS imagines or other data with RS and GIS tools. At last, snowmelt flood based on "3S" technologies andDSS had been forested in the typical study area, Quergou River Basin, which is located in the middle of the NorthernTianshan Mountains, Xinjiang, China, and is contrasted with the latter measured runoff. Good forecasting results hadbeen achieved, and the average accuracy was up to 0.90.