HOW SERIOUS IS THE CRISIS OF THE INTERNATIONAL NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME?

摘要

Summary: The nuclear non proliferation regime is in a crisis, but it is definitelynot as severely damaged as proponents of the liberal arms control school are suggesting.Their main argument is that contractual breaches (first and foremost) by the nuclearweapons states as well as by non-nuclear weapons states (Iran, North-Korea; Iraq andLibya in the past) and the ongoing abstentions of India, Israel and Pakistan from theregime are the main causes for the pending collapse. It is argued here that the mainfactor in preserving the nuclear nonproliferation regime has been the relative success ofthe rule of non-use of force in interstate relations. It is more important to see to that thisrule will be maintained—for which the role of the U.S. as a steward of internationalpeace is crucial—than in making assumptions whether there was a basic deal betweennuclear weapons states and non-nuclear weapons states and about who was responsiblefor the alleged unraveling of that deal.