Using system dynamics to analyse policy options for tobacco control in New Zealand

摘要

This paper outlines a system dynamics model that has been developed to assist the Ministry of Health to evaluate the dynamic consequences of tobacco control policies in New Zealand. The model consists of 4 sectors: population; smoking prevalences; second hand smoke; and tobacco attributable deaths. The model is simulated for 20-30 years into the future. The simulation package used is 'iThink', and a user interface is presented for policy analysis. A range of illustrative scenarios are provided, including: business as usual; fiscal strategies involving less affordable cigarettes; harm minimisation strategies involving either less addictive cigarettes or less toxic cigarettes; and combinations of the above policies. The main output variables (performance measures) include current smoking prevalence, tobacco consumption, and tobacco attibutable mortality.