Morphogenetic-Weighted Updating Algorithm and its Application in Updating Probabilistic Risk of Typhoon Rainstorms

摘要

In this paper, we proposed Morphogenetic-Weighted Updating Algorithm to update probabilistic risk without original observations based on Morphogenetic System Theory (MST). Without the original observations, both the original exceedance probability curve and the new exceedance probability curve will be projected into the same mathematical space which is the context in MST. After the "Write" operation and "Read" operation, the internal sources and the projections of the projected exceedance probability curves can be computed. The context could store the information hidden in the exceedance probability curves and provided a platform to update the results of risk assessment without original observations. Through updating the probabilistic risk of typhoon rainstorms occurred in Guangdong Province, the algorithm was illustrated. Comparing with the updated results by combining the new observations with the original observations, the proposed algorithm can improve the updating behavior. This case shows that morphogenetic-weighted updating algorithm can update probabilistic risk of natural disasters satisfactorily.