The Assessment of ‘Vulnerability-Capability’ in Oil Transportation: Application to an Oil Pipeline

摘要

In this paper, the risk of the oil transportation system was defined as the contrast between the accident vulnerability and accident response capability. According to the fault chain theory, the risk stakeholders of oil transportation system include the accident-potential facility, which was named as target asset, and the surrounding objects that may be attacked by the accident harm from the target asset. In this paper, all these surrounding objects were called as hazard bearing body, which may be nearby human, facility, community, river or all other objects that be influenced in an accident. With respect to the vulnerability and capability of the oil transportation system, the multiple influencing factors were proposed both from the aspects of target asset and hazard bearing body. Based on these influencing factor sets, a vulnerability-capability assessment model for oil transportation system was established. In the model, the Fuzzy-AHP method was chosen as the quantitative calculation tool. In the end of the paper, the pipeline system that had exploded in the "11.22" accident that happened in Shandong province was chosen to demonstrate the model application. The assessment result showed that the vulnerability is higher than that capability, and the pipeline system is in a high-risk situation.