RISK ANALYSIS METHODS IN OIL SPILL CONTINGENCY PLANS

摘要

Risk analysis of oil spills is an essential step of developing contingency plans. It is not only the basis of oil spill risk assessment, but also the basis of decision making about treating risks. Risk analysis involves consideration of the sources of risk, their consequences and likelihood that those consequences may occur. The consequences and likelihood of each risk source determines the level of risk. It is inappropriate to assume that the quantitative is always better than qualitative analysis. Risk analysis may be undertaken to varying degrees of detail depending upon the risk, the purpose of the analysis, and the information, data and resources available. Risk analysis in contingency plans does not attempt to quantify absolute risk levels, but compares the relative risk between different geographical regions and allocates reasonably limited resources. Therefore, qualitative risk analysis is sufficient for the purpose of the developing a contingency plan. This paper describes the risk analysis methods that can be used in oil spill contingency plan, based on introducing methods of risk analysis.