Crisis Analysis of Urbanization Process in Harbin Based on Grey Prediction

摘要

Harbin, as a big city in China, is developing urbanization to improve citizens' life. However, over urbanization is a key impediment and it's sure to happen according to city developing procedure. From this meaning, over urbanization is a crisis of city development. So, detecting hidden crisis is the main goal of this paper. As Grey Disaster Changing prediction, one of grey predictions, can predict when the next crisis will happen and have high precision, it is selected here to predict when over urbanization will occur for Chinese government to consider about how to prevent or take measures. Taking last 11 years data about industrialization level and industrialization situation in Harbin, the crisis of urbanization process is predicted. The predicting result is over urbanization will appear in the next 3rd years.