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PIECEWISE LINEAR FUNCTIONS FOR SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF POWER SUPPLY AND DEMAND

机译:分段线性函数,用于供电和需求的短期预测

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This article gives details of a technique for machine learning based on piecewise linear functions having the structure of a tree composed of linear functions at the leaves and minimum and maximum operations at internal nodes. These are called ALNs. By virtue of this structure, the functions are always continuous. The technique is being used successfully for short-term forecasting of wind power supply, electrical power demand and for planning natural gas distribution. The simple architecture allows constraints to be imposed on linear pieces that carry over to global functions, for example monotonicity constraints or, more generally, constraints on partial derivatives of approximants. We show how constraints can be used to improve accuracy and reduce the risk of unexpected values when training data is in short supply.
机译:本文提供了一种基于具有由叶子的线性函数的结构的分段线性函数的机器学习技术的细节,以及内部节点处的最小和最大操作。这些称为阿尔斯。借助于这种结构,函数始终是连续的。该技术成功地用于风电供应,电力需求和规划天然气分布的短期预测。简单的架构允许在携带到全局功能的线性块上施加约束,例如单调性约束,或者更一般地,对近似值的部分导数的约束。我们展示了如何使用约束来提高准确性,并在培训数据供不应求时降低意外值的风险。

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