Short-Term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook: Energy Supply and Demand Forecast for FY2013

摘要

FY2011 was a year of tight constraints on economic and production activity resulting from the damage to production capacity and disruption of supply chains due to the Great East Japan Earthquake, the downturn in consumer confidence, and the implementation of an order to restrict electricity consumption for the first time in 37 years. Strong growth was anticipated for the Japanese economy in FY2012, boosted by demand generated by reconstruction needs, but overall, the recovery will turn out to have been a more gradual one due to a slowdown in exports to China and Europe and other factors. In FY2013, a gradual economic expansion is expected, in particular due to recovery in the U.S. economy, solid growth among emerging countries such as China, and the bottoming out of the European economy. The Japanese economy, as well, is expected to be boosted by a turnaround in the external environment and recovery in demand, and by the effects of last-minute demand prior to the consumption tax increase scheduled for April 2014. Energy demand in FY2011 declined due to a slump in economic activity and a rise in awareness of energy conservation as a consequence of the disaster. Even going into FY2012, a nationwide trend toward electricity and energy conservation became more entrenched, and with near-term economic sentiment weakness, the demand for energy is expected to continue to decline as it did in the previous year. This report presents a forecast of energy supply and demand through FY2013 based on the domestic and overseas situations outlined above.