Short-Term Energy Supply/Demand Outlook- Forecast through FY2011 and Analysis on Effects of Crude Oil Price,Economic Growth and Ambient Temperature Changes -

摘要

This report presents forecasts on energy supply and demand in Japan for FY2010 and FY2011. Because energy demand can be positioned as "derivative demand" arising out of economic activities (more fundamental demand), it is important to start by evaluating economic trends. The world economy is on a recovery track after the worst period following the financial crisis. In the Japanese economy, production and consumption have recovered rapidly on an export rebound and economic stimulus measures. But effects of economic stimulus measures have run their course in the United States and Europe. Particularly in Europe, the recovery pace is slowing on lingering budget risks. In Japan, manufacturing industries have recovered rapidly on the strength of growing exports to other Asian countries. Consumption has been supported by consumption-stimulating measures like the eco-point system and tax cuts/subsidies for eco-friendly vehicles, as well as summer heat waves. Energy demand has turned upward on the production rebound and high temperatures. At present, however, the economic recovery might have come to a lull on the expiration of consumption-boosting measures and the yen's appreciation.