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基于灰色信息系统理论的我国能源供需预测研究

         

摘要

China's economy will develop rapidly in the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Energy resources stimulate the continuous development of China. The development of high-quality new energy and the use of advanced ener-gy technologies are an important condition for the development of China and the world. During the next two or three decades, China will be facing increased demand, population growth, environmental constraints and chal-lenges and other problems, the appropriate production and energy consumption structure will have to have a major adjustment. Scientific and appropriate prediction about supply and demand for energy can not only help effectively make China's energy development strategy planning for decades in the future, but also have important theoretical and practical significance on the promotion of rapid and smooth eco-economic growth, as well as on the construc-tion of a harmonious society. This paper, by using the GM (1,1) prediction method, through predictions of future energy production and consumption, compares the total energy production and consumption gap so as to provide a practical reference for rational energy blueprints in the future. Influencing factors on China's energy supply and de-mand include resource endowments, level of technology, national investment, economic growth, industrial struc-ture, demographic change and aging. Therefore, while improving the structure of energy supply and demand, it is necessary to increase scientific and technological development, strengthen energy security policy, and promote in-ternational cooperation in oil and gas resources. Finally, after fully grasping the basic situation of energy supply and demand forecast, the paper puts forward corresponding suggestions for the development in the coming decades in China.%“十二五”时期中国经济快速发展,能源是推动中国继续发展的助燃剂,与此同时不完善的能源结构也阻碍了人类社会的发展,其中高品质新型能源开发和先进能源技术的使用是中国乃至世界发展的重要条件。我国的能源部门在未来的二十年或三十年间将面临需求增加、人口膨胀、环境制约和挑战等因素,相应的生产方式和能源消费结构将有重大调整。对能源的供给与需求进行科学准确地预测,不仅能有效制定未来我国几十年间能源发展战略规划,而且就促进我国生态经济快速平稳增长、创建和谐社会等方面都有非常重要的理论及现实意义。本文主要运用GM(1,1)预测方法,通过未来能源生产与消费的预测结果,将能源生产与消费的总量缺口进行对比分析,给今后绘制出合理的能源蓝图提供充裕的实际依据。影响我国能源供需的因素有资源禀赋、技术水平、国家投资、经济水平、产业结构、人口变化及老龄化,因此在改善能源供需结构的同时,应加大科技开发力度,加强能源政策保障,同时推动油气资源国际合作等。最后在充分掌握能源供需状况的预测基础后,对我国未来几十年的能源供需、新能源开发提出了科学合理的建议。

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