MODELLING AND PREDICTION OF INTERNET DIFFUSION IN THE AFRICAN CONTINENT: THE S-SHAPED INTERNET DIFFUSION CURVE

摘要

Internet is a key technological change which has significant economic effects. This paper tries to study the diffusion processes of Internet users in the African continent, the region of the world with a wider technological gap. In this sense, the main objective of the present research is to predict, ceteris paribus, the maximum level of Internet users in the African continent, in order to help policy makers and firms to adopt the correct policies. Firstly, it is analyzed whether Internet follows in Africa the usual S-shaped diffusion curve which characterizes the adoption processes of new Information and Communications Technologies (ICT). Once we confirm that the diffusion of the Internet in Africa follows an S-shaped diffusion curve, we introduce the historical data of this indicator (published by the International Telecommunication Union in its 2010 World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database) in SPSS, running a logistic function with three parameters. This function is explained in the article by using MATLAB. The three parameters included in the logistic function offer information on the Internet diffusion speed, slope, and the maximum potential percentage of Internet users in the African continent.