采用设计结构矩阵的突发事件扩散预测及建模方法

摘要

An analysis algorithm is proposed for predicting propagation paths of disruptions in a supply chain system,and these predicting results are stored into a storage model.A basic supply chain consisting of supplier,manufacturer and dealer is regarded as the research object.Graph theory and design structure matrix (DSM) are used to describe the relationships among the entities in this supply chain network system.And propagation paths and influence scope of a disruption can be predicted by clustering analysis of DSM.Following the analyzing results,the XML storage model is established to structurally store propagation paths and influence scope to improve the reaction rate of the supply chain system,and the system can quickly respond to a disruption.A supply chain with 28 entities is analyzed with the proposed algorithm and 3 types of propagation are obtained.This numerical example illustrates that the iteration times are reduced and the efficiency is improved via the optimized clustering algorithm,indicating the applying significance to control disruption propagation path in a supply chain.%针对现代供应链系统中突发事件扩散路径的控制问题,提出了对突发事件扩散路径进行预测分析的算法,并建立预测结果存储模型.根据基本供应链网络是由供应商、制造商以及分销商组成的特点,首先利用图论的思想结合设计结构矩阵(DSM)对供应链网络系统各组成部分之间的关联关系进行描述,然后利用设计的聚类算法对DSM聚类分析,预测系统中的所有突发事件扩散路径和影响范围.在分析结果的基础上,建立了扩散路径的可扩展性标记语言存储模型,提高了系统对突发事件的反应速度,缩短了反应时间,当突发事件引起成员发生变化时,系统能得到快速响应.最后以某供应链网络为例,使用所提出的算法对其中28个成员的扩散路径进行分析,利用存储模型得到扩散路径的3种类型.试验结果表明,通过提出的优化的聚类算法,缩短了迭代次数,提高了计算效率,并为所提算法与模型对控制供应链系统突发事件的扩散路径分析提供了实际意义.