EVOLUTIONARY COMPUTATION AND MODELING OF NATURAL PHENOMENA: AN APPLICATION TO LAVA FLOWS

摘要

A Parallel Master-Slave Genetic Algorithm has been applied to evolve a two dimensional Cellular Automata model for lava flow simulation. A new quantitative measure for the evaluation of the simulations result with respect to the real event has been defined and employed as fitness function. It compares both the areal extension and the temporal duration of the simulated event with respect the real one. The 2001 Etnean Nicolosi (Italy) case study has been considered for model calibration, while the validation has been performed by considering further cases of study, which differ both in duration and emission rate. Results have confirmed both the goodness of the simulation model and of the calibration algorithm. Eventually a possible application related to Civil Defence purposes is briefly described and proposed as a future development.