Mass Production Scale of PV Modules and Components in 2030s and beyond

摘要

Japan set "PV2030" Roadmap in May 2004, in which 100 GW of total domestic installation of PV systems are expected. Estimating 10 to 20 GW/Y in 2030s, production scale may becomes different order of magnitude from the present level around 600 MW/Y by Japanese manufacturers. If 20 to 30 lines will be operated in Japan during 2030s, this production volume corresponds to 1 GW/Y/line, which means 10 times larger than 100 MW for the present. Moreover, world total PV installation may reach 133 TW if one third of world electricity demands is considered to be fulfilled by PV electricity. For this case, the author assumed 10 GW/Y x 440 lines. According to this basic assumptions, typical production speeds are indicated, e.g., more than 4 or 40 cells/second for each of 2030 or 2100; more than 100,000 or 1,000,000 modules/month; more than 8,000 or 80,000 units/month of residential inverters and another 50,000 or 500,000 units of AC modules. Basic technical requirements for such massive production volume will be discussed and rough images are also illustrated to indicate our directions for the future.