Cost-Estimating Aircraft Systems at a Conceptual Design Stage

摘要

The development of accurate cost estimates at the conceptual design stage helps identify ways to reduce costs throughout a project's life cycle. This task, carried out before any substantial investment has occurred, identifies possible cost savings at a point when action can be taken to ensure that these benefits can be realised. The aim of the research project presented within this paper is to provide increased confidence in cost estimates at a conceptual design stage by reducing subjectivity found in the use of expert judgements. Working with a leading aircraft manufacturer this study focuses on costing the systems of aircraft. The paper presents a case study on the hydraulics system, demonstrating a unique format that has been adopted for capturing rules that automate the costing of the system at a conceptual design stage. The developed prototype requires top level definitions of the proposed new aircraft design and then uses captured design rules together with rationalised judgements to calculate the architecture and a pseudo BOM for a conceptual hydraulics system. Subsequently the cost of the generated system is estimated using a commercial cost estimating software to allow comparisons to be made for different system configurations.