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Hydrologic Models for Emergency Decision Support Using Bayesian Networks

机译:使用贝叶斯网络进行紧急决策支持的水文模型

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In the presence of a river flood, operators in charge of control must take decisions based on imperfect and incomplete sources of information (e.g., data provided by a limited number sensors) and partial knowledge about the structure and behavior of the river basin. This is a case of reasoning about a complex dynamic system with uncertainty and real-time constraints where bayesian networks can be used to provide an effective support. In this paper we describe a solution with spatio-temporal bayesian networks to be used in a context of emergencies produced by river floods. In the paper we describe first a set of types of causal relations for hydrologic processes with spatial and temporal references to represent the dynamics of the river basin. Then we describe how this was included in a computer system called SAIDA to provide assistance to operators in charge of control in a river basin. Finally the paper shows experimental results about the performance of the model.
机译:在河流洪水的存在下,负责控制的运营商必须基于信息的不完全和不完整的信息来源(例如,由有限的数字传感器提供的数据)以及关于河流流域结构和行为的部分了解。这是一个带来复杂动态系统的案例,具有不确定性和实时约束,其中贝叶斯网络可用于提供有效的支持。在本文中,我们描述了一种用时空贝叶斯网络的解决方案,以便在河洪水产生的紧急情况下使用。在论文中,我们描述了具有空间和时间参考的水文过程的第一类因果关系,以代表河流流域的动态。然后,我们描述了如何包含在一个名为SENA的计算机系统中,为河流域控制控制的运营商提供援助。最后,该论文显示了模型性能的实验结果。

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