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Hydrologic models for emergency decision support using Bayesian networks

机译:使用贝叶斯网络的紧急决策支持水文模型

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摘要

In the presence of a river flood, operators in charge of control must take decisions based on imperfect and incomplete sources of information (e.g., data provided by a limited number sensors) and partial knowledge about the structure and behavior of the river basin. This is a case of reasoning about a complex dynamic system with uncertainty and real-time constraints where bayesian networks can be used to provide an effective support. In this paper we describe a solution with spatio-temporal bayesian networks to be used in a context of emergencies produced by river floods. In the paper we describe first a set of types of causal relations for hydrologic processes with spatial and temporal references to represent the dynamics of the river basin. Then we describe how this was included in a computer system called SAIDA to provide assistance to operators in charge of control in a river basin. Finally the paper shows experimental results about the performance of the model.
机译:在发生河水泛滥的情况下,负责控制的操作人员必须根据不完善和不完整的信息源(例如,有限数量的传感器提供的数据)以及有关流域结构和行为的部分知识来做出决策。这是一个具有不确定性和实时约束的复杂动态系统的推理案例,其中贝叶斯网络可用于提供有效的支持。在本文中,我们描述了一种时空贝叶斯网络的解决方案,该解决方案可用于河流洪水造成的紧急情况。在本文中,我们首先描述了水文过程的一组因果关系,并使用了时空参考来表示流域的动态。然后,我们描述了如何将其包含在名为SAIDA的计算机系统中,以向负责流域控制的操作员提供帮助。最后,本文显示了有关模型性能的实验结果。

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