PROSPECTS FOR A FUTURE GLOBAL PRICE FOR LNG EVOLUTIONS DE MARCHES DE L'ENERGIE ET DE LA COMMERCIALISATION DU GNL

摘要

Historically LNG prices have been indexed to crude oil prices and, combined with the general similarity between supply contracts into individual markets, prices have therefore tended to lie within a relatively narrow and predictable range within any given market at any given point in time. However a number of factors are now creating the potential for increased linkages between individual markets. Atlantic Basin LNG sales into the mature, deregulated and competitive US market, which are projected to grow from a level of 6 bcm in 2002 to potentially more than 50 bcm by 2010, are effectively price takers of the US price (generally NYMEX but also includes other regional hubs). These prices reflect the physical fundamentals of the gas market rather than the oil price per se. Looking forward, we see the potential for the European market to follow a similar route through its commitment to liberalisation of EU gas markets. This paper will examine the extent to which this influence of regional market prices will increase as suppliers are likely to grow increasingly used to netback pricing, and are able to arbitrage cargoes between regional markets. Changing dynamics in the Atlantic Basin also impact the more "established" Pacific Basin as increasingly significant Middle Eastern producers are uniquely positioned to arbitrage supplies between what have historically been regarded as two discrete regional markets. Indeed, in the Pacific Basin we are also witnessing new price levels in recent contracts, as buyers become more conscious of competitive pressures in their own gas and power markets and of their buying power. At the same time competition to secure further sales contracts increases as a number of new projects seek to secure foundation contract volumes. Anticipation of future LNG imports into US West Coast raises the prospects of a further interconnected global LNG market. This paper will examine the future price influences across both Basins and assess whether a global price might ultimately emerge, and if so what that price might be.