Organizations have to deal with ever shorter innovation cycles and stronger global competition. The assurance of the product development in the context of concurrent engineering plays a deciding role in the correct selection of technologies, in order to bring innovative yet safe, reliable products on to the market. In early phases usually only imperfect information is present for new technologies in particular, whereby inevitable uncertainties in decision making arise regarding the correct technology selection. The subsequent presented method is based on a probabilistic approach and is able to process indistinct quantifiable input data, whereby both objective and subjective probabilities can be handled. Due to the effect of aggregation with the addition of density functions the haziness of the results becomes smaller than the haziness of the inputs. As a result more precise decision making implementation can be formed with the technology selection, using suitable prospect-risk-statements regarding alternative technology composites to finally realize the best technology solution.
展开▼
