Implications from Food Supply-Demand Simulation Models

摘要

Outlook on food production and demand indicates that there will be enough food on the global scale at constant or even slightly falling real prices for the next 20 to 25 years to come. However, on the regional level many developing countries have to increase food imports in order to improve the nutritional status of their population. To make this outlook a reality, stewardship of the natural resources, especially of water and land, has to be enhanced. This requires institutional innovations, decentralisation of policy making and good governance. Technical progress in both animal and crop production also must continue. Declining yield growths could have a very strong impact on world prices for agricultural raw materials. Research on agriculture should focus more closely on the linkage between natural resources and food. It also should stress distributional issues on various spatial and time scales.