首页> 外文会议>International Symposium on Heat Transfer Enhancement and Energy Conservation >MEDIUM LONG TERM FORECASTING ABOUT NATIONAL ELECTRIC CONSUMPTION AND IT'S CONSTITUTION OF THE WHOLE SOCIETY BASED ON THE FRACTAL
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MEDIUM LONG TERM FORECASTING ABOUT NATIONAL ELECTRIC CONSUMPTION AND IT'S CONSTITUTION OF THE WHOLE SOCIETY BASED ON THE FRACTAL

机译:中长期预测国家电力消费及其基于分形的全社会宪法

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To make a medium long term forecasting about national electric consumption and it's constitution is a basic task in the electric system. In the last analysis it is determined by the market supply-and-demand relation, so it has the main character of fractal market hypothesis (FMH), i.e. the fractal market time sequence, the inner swatches of which have statistic character similar trend. According to the fractal collage theorem and with the fractal interpolation, we establish fractal forecasting model to forecast the medium long term electric consumption. The method has no convergence property, and collects the data conveniently. Therefore, it holds good value in practice. The whole society electric consumption constitution shows a strong persistence and correlation character. In this paper the history data of the whole society electric consumption constitutions is proposed as the fractal unit, and with the N steps iterative accumulated value to form fractal, every economic indicator shows that there exists the evident scale independent range after the year 1990. With the definition of fractal dimension, the whole society electric consumption constitution is predicted in the article. This method has no convergence property either, and it calculates fast, so it also holds good value in practice.
机译:为了使中长期预测国家电力消费,宪法是电力系统中的基本任务。在上次分析中,它取决于市场供求关系,因此它具有分形市场假设(FMH)的主要特征,即分形市场时间序列,其内在的样本具有统计性​​状的类似趋势。根据分形拼贴定理和分形插值,我们建立了分形预测模型,预测中长期的电力消耗。该方法没有收敛属性,并方便地收集数据。因此,它在实践中保持了良好的价值。整个社会的电力消费宪法表现出强烈的持久性和相关性。在本文中,全社会的历史数据被提出为分形单位,并且N步骤迭代累积值形成分形​​,每个经济指标都表明1990年后存在明显的规模独立范围。与分形维数的定义,在文章中预测了整个社会的电力消费宪法。此方法也没有收敛性,并且它快速计算,因此它在实践中也具有良好的价值。

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