MEDIUM LONG TERM FORECASTING ABOUT NATIONAL ELECTRIC CONSUMPTION AND IT'S CONSTITUTION OF THE WHOLE SOCIETY BASED ON THE FRACTAL

摘要

To make a medium long term forecasting about national electric consumption and it's constitution is a basic task in the electric system. In the last analysis it is determined by the market supply-and-demand relation, so it has the main character of fractal market hypothesis (FMH), i.e. the fractal market time sequence, the inner swatches of which have statistic character similar trend. According to the fractal collage theorem and with the fractal interpolation, we establish fractal forecasting model to forecast the medium long term electric consumption. The method has no convergence property, and collects the data conveniently. Therefore, it holds good value in practice. The whole society electric consumption constitution shows a strong persistence and correlation character. In this paper the history data of the whole society electric consumption constitutions is proposed as the fractal unit, and with the N steps iterative accumulated value to form fractal, every economic indicator shows that there exists the evident scale independent range after the year 1990. With the definition of fractal dimension, the whole society electric consumption constitution is predicted in the article. This method has no convergence property either, and it calculates fast, so it also holds good value in practice.