Forecasting is a difficult and dangerous exercise. The greatest danger is that others may remember your forecasts and may be in a position to check them against real events. Forecasters, particularly those who stay in the profession long enough to see their forecasts confirmed or otherwise by reality, are therefore very brave people. Because of what I just said, I shall not offer any precise forecasts in this brief keynote address, which is written several months in advance of the World Mining Congress. To prepare forecasts in April that people will only read in November could be seen as reckless rather than brave. Instead, I shall discuss some of the difficulties facing those who attempt to forecast metals supply and demand, and I shall try to identify some of the key factors for the medium and short term. In my presentation at the Congress itself in November, I shall attempt an explanation ex-post of what really happened this year with minerals and metals supply and demand and discuss which key factors I missed.
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