EVALUATING ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OFENVIRONMENTALLYSUSTAINABLE SCENARIOS BY A BACKCASTINGAPPROACH WITH ESCOT(ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABILITYPOLICIES OF TRANSPORT)

摘要

The aim of ESCOT (Model for economic assessment of sustainability policies of transport) isto describe a development path towards sustainable transport in Germany and to assess itseconomic impacts. The baseline of the ESCOT modelling approach is twofold: A SystemDynamics Methodology is applied for integrated modelling of transportation scenarios and aMacroeconomic Model is developed for the economic assessment.The framework for sustainable transport is prescribed by severe environmental goals, whichrequire sophisticated changes in the treatment of the environment. As major driving forces forthese changes we have to consider e.g. the development of population, the way of living andhousing, car ownership, consumption and other macroeconomic variables. In addition to thecomplex interrelationships between these driving forces the investigated scenarios cover along period of time. Complexity of considered systems and long-term time horizon for theassessment suggest applying a System Dynamics Model (SDM) (chapter 2).ESCOT is used to assess a development path towards sustainable transport in Germany in theproject on environmentally sustainable transport (EST) of the OECD. The project is designedto consider the ecological and technical aspects of a transition towards sustainabletransportation (chapter 3). As methodology the project applied a backcasting approach. In thefirst part the project identified ecological goals and designed a desirable future of transport.Then a path from today's situation to this desirable future was developed and policy strategiesthat should lead to sustainability were designed. On one hand the results of this part of the