Ensemble modeling of natural methane emissions from wetlands taking into account the internal variability of the climate system

摘要

Current estimates of methane emissions from high-latitude wetland ecosystems have significant inter-model variation, one of the reasons for which may be the internal variability of atmospheric circulation. This paper analyzes the effects of internal atmospheric variability on variations in methane emissions from Western Siberia. For average annual emission values, the uncertainty rate associated with climatic noise was 10%, and for individual months, 7-35%.