Assessment of the transfer probability of black carbon from simulated forest fires of Russian boreal forest to arctic ice and their possible influence on climate

摘要

The purpose of this work is to obtain estimates of the probability of black carbon transfer originated from simulated forest fires in European and Asian boreal taiga to Arctic region, to assess its concentration and deposition to ice surface and its contribution to shortwave radiative forcing. To obtain a primary qualitative estimate of the transfer possibility of particles from forest fires in Russia to the area covered with sea ice, the trajectory model HYSPLIT was used. The climatic impact of black carbon on the Arctic from simulated forest fires was estimated using a climate model developed by the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INMCM4) of the Russian Academy of Sciences. It was shown that the probability that the particle injected in northern Russia in the area of boreal taiga, would move through areas of the Arctic Ocean covered with sea ice, is estimated to be in the range 1-10%. The impact of the black carbon on the balance of shortwave radiation was estimated: an increase of 1.5-2% compared with the no-emission scenario.