Forest Fires Ignition Probability Model: test and validation onFORFAIT Italian pilot site

摘要

This work has been developed within an European Project called “FORFAIT: Forest Fires Risk and Hazard Assessment: A Holistic Approach” with the aim of realizing a Decision Support System (DSS) which can be used by planners, educationalists, regulatory and industrial bodies to aid in decision making that will reduce the risks and consequence of forest fires. It has been designed to be generally applicable across Europe, but capable of being applied on a site-specific basis to assess risks to humans, environment an commercial enterprises. The DSS includes a set of models to cover all the different aspects of fire prevention and management: from probability of ignition to effects and costs analysis. This paper refers to a specific component of the DSS developed to evaluate the probability of ignition of the interested area. In developing the model, all the factors involved in fire hazards have been considered and in particular, an accurate study of the physical, geographical, vegetation, meteorological and anthropic factors, was performed in the considered area.