A PROPOSAL TO COMPILE PAST ATMOSPHERIC DISPERSION FIELD EXPERIMENT DATA FOR EASY ACCESS AND MODEL EVALUATION

摘要

The long-range transport of pollutants in the atmosphere has received considerable attention in recent years, corresponding with a comparable number of models to address these issues. In particular there has been consistent emphasis on nuclear reactor accidents since Chernobyl by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) through the organization of WMO' s Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMCs). The European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) symposium evaluated 47 different models. The introduction of more fuel efficient jet aircraft engines (running at higher temperatures) has made modern commercial aircraft very sensitive to volcanic ash from eruptions. Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAAC), designated by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), use transport and dispersion models to forecast the location of volcanic ash, so that aircraft may be warned and rerouted around the affected areas. Most, if not all, atmospheric transport models (ATM) are linked to one or more operational meteorological forecast models, or a particular meteorological archive which is then used by the ATM. The data predicted by the meteorological models are routinely evaluated and compared against common performance standards. Although similar verification standards exist for the ATMs, there is a sense in the dispersion modeling community that there is very little data available to perform these evaluations. Perhaps this is because these data are not as easily obtained and are usually limited to single events or controlled (and expensive) field experiments that are not available on a routine basis. However there are many isolated experiments, some of which are controlled tracer releases and others from the sampling of tracers of opportunity. The problem with many of these data sets is that some are now decades old, reports are difficult to locate, if available the data are in various formats, and not all experiments archived the corresponding meteorological data. The recent completion of meteorological re-analysis projects at several international meteorological centers, provides an opportunity to link high quality modern meteorological data with each of these dispersion experiment data sets. The concept would be to create a set of CD ROMS, containing experimental data, relevant reports, meteorological data, and statistical analysis and display software, all in a common non-proprietary form. This new common data base would permit the modeling community to conduct sensitivity and verification studies with considerable less preparation and effort than is now required. In addition, each modeling center or research group could produce results for each experiment that then could be compared with results from all other groups through participation in a model verification symposium. The objectives of this report are to stimulate research laboratories that might be interested to do the work and perhaps identify potential sources of funding.