Organized Crime and Economic Growth: a System Dynamics Approach to a Socio-economic Issue

摘要

This paper describes the potential of system dynamics models to support policy decisions and macroeconomics strategies aimed at reducing the level of organized crime in a country and promoting further economic growth. A causal loop diagram will elicit the main links found between organized crime, investment safety expectations and economic growth. Additionally it will suggest the need to focus the attention on what has been defined as the "risk fraction", that is unemployed people which constitute the recruitment base for crime organizations. This concept sets the groundwork for the main dynamic hypothesis of a system dynamics model. Central in the structure of the model is the attempt to identify the most relevant variables defining the "crime attractiveness", to emphasize a dynamic conceptualization of "risk fraction", and to suggest alternative ways to quantify and evaluate the effectiveness of various socio-economic policies.