Model of economic growth, inflation and international trade in Russian Federation

摘要

The paper describes an econometric model of the Russian economy which is tailored to analyze and explain current trends in Russian economy and to forecast its dynamics for the next 2-3 years. The model showed that if all exogenous variables (export and import prices, the money mass and economically active population, etc.) will change with the average rates they had during last three years the average annual growth rate of Russian economy for the next two years will be negative about -1.5% while inflation remains as strong as about 9% annually. Under the assumptions of rapid import prices' increase the dynamics of the GDP gets worse. Active monetary policy improves situation only slightly. Aggressive fiscal policy has a negative impact on gross capital formation.