Variability in mapping acidification risk scenarios for terrestrial ecosystems in Asian countries

摘要

Acidification has the potential to become a widespread problem in parts of Asia. Just how widespread this risk may be is discussed by comparing sulphur deposition to critical load estimates, taking into account neutralising base cation deposition from soil dust. Two scenarios for the sulphur emission in 2025 are used as inputs to the MATCH atmospheric transfer model to estimate sulphur deposition scenarios. Net acidic deposition using a low and high base cation deposition input is compared to a map of sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystems to acidic deposition. Two ranges of critical loads assigned to this sensitivity map are used. The variability in the maps showing risks of acidification using low and high estimates for critical loads and base cation deposition for two different development pathways is discussed. Certain areas are shown to be at risk in all cases whereas others are very sensitive to the values used to estimate risk.