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Some Sufficient Conditions on an Arbitrary Class of Stochastic Processes for the Existence of a Predictor

机译:关于预测因子存在的任意类随机过程的一些充分条件

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We consider the problem of sequence prediction in a probabilistic setting. Let there be given a class C of stochastic processes (probability measures on the set of one-way infinite sequences). We are interested in the question of what are the conditions on C under which there exists a predictor (also a stochastic process) for which the predicted probabilities converge to the correct ones if any of the processes in C is chosen to generate the data. We find some sufficient conditions on C under which such a predictor exists. Some of the conditions are asymptotic in nature, while others are based on the local (truncated to first observations) behaviour of the processes. The conditions lead to constructions of the predictors. In some cases we obtain rates of convergence that are optimal up to an additive logarithmic term. We emphasize that the framework is completely general: the stochastic processes considered are not required to be i.i.d., stationary, or to belong to some parametric family.
机译:我们考虑概率设置中的序列预测问题。让允许有一类随机过程(一组单向无限序列上的概率措施)。我们对该问题感兴趣的问题是,如果选择的任何进程是生成数据的任何过程,则预测概率会收敛到正确的问题。我们在其中发现了一些足够的条件,其中存在这种预测因子。一些条件是性质上的渐近性,而其他条件是基于本地(截断到第一次观察)过程的行为。条件导致预测器的结构。在某些情况下,我们获得了最佳的收敛速度,这是最佳的准确性对数术语。我们强调该框架是完全一般的:被认为的随机过程不需要是i.i.d.,静止或属于某些参数家庭。

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