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Prediction of ground level ozone concentration using artificial neural network modeling

机译:使用人工神经网络建模预测地面臭氧浓度

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Ozone is a toxic and reactive air pollutant that is hazardous to human health and is detrimental to many living organisms and inorganic substances. Ozone is a secondary pollutant that depends on other air pollutants and meteorological conditions. Prediction of anticipated ozone concentrations is very important for an effective air quality management. Timely warnings of unhealthy ozone concentrations can reduce the associated risks to human health and to sensitive ecosystems. The standard for maximum ozone concentration for hourly exposure is 0.120 parts per million. Recently, a new 8-hour standard for ozone concentrations of 0.080 parts per million was set by the US Environmental Protection Agency. A variety of physically based and statistical models have been developed and applied for predictions of ozone concentrations. An improvement to the statistical models is the application of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technology. ANN models can handle complex nonlinear relationships and be easily "self-retrained", as new data become available. For this study, the MATLAB -Neural Network Toolbox was used to model the daily ozone levels in Palm Beach County, Florida. After several different trials, the particular model selected and used was a back-propagation one-hidden layer ANN model. The model was tested using different sets of input data including: atmospheric pressure, air temperature, dew point temperature, wind direction, wind speed, and ozone concentration during the previous time step. Temperature, dew point, wind direction, wind speed were provided at five different atmospheric elevations. The maximum number of input parameters included in the trials was twenty-six. In spite of the episodic nature and low frequency of ozone-standard exceeding events, the model was able to predict the ozone fluctuations in a very effective manner.
机译:臭氧是一种毒性和反应性的空气污染物,对人类健康有害,对许多生物和无机物质有害。臭氧是一种二级污染物,其取决于其他空气污染物和气象条件。预期臭氧浓度的预测对于有效的空气质量管理非常重要。及时对不健康的臭氧浓度的警告可以减少对人类健康和敏感生态系统的相关风险。每小时最大臭氧浓度的标准为0.120份百万份。最近,美国环境保护局设定了新的8小时臭氧浓度标准,每百万份0.080份。已经开发出各种物理和统计模型并施加臭氧浓度的预测。对统计模型的改进是人工神经网络(ANN)技术的应用。 ANN型号可以处理复杂的非线性关系,并且很容易“自我再烫”,因为新数据可用。对于这项研究,Matlab-intal网络工具箱用于模拟佛罗里达州棕榈滩县的日常臭氧水平。经过几种不同的试验后,选择和使用的特定模型是反向传播的一个隐藏层ANN模型。使用不同的输入数据进行测试,包括:在前一步步骤中,包括:大气压,空气温度,露点温度,风向,风速和臭氧浓度。温度,露点,风向,风速在五种不同的大气升高。试验中包含的最大输入参数数为二十六个。尽管臭氧标准超出事件的臭氧性质和低频率,但该模型能够以非常有效的方式预测臭氧波动。

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