Uncertainty analysis of water level on Lake IJssel in the Netherlands

摘要

In this paper, the probability of inundation of the low-lying polders protected by dikes from the Dutch Lake IJssel (1200 km~2) is studied on the basis of a physical model. In particular the uncertainty in the probability of overtopping is analysedwith a first order reliability methods (FORM). The FORM-calculations showed that the uncertainty in the wind speed and the uncertainty in the water level contributed most in the total uncertainty of the probabilty of overtopping of a dike with given height. A comparison has been made between the results of the FORM-calculations and the calculations where only intrinsic uncertainty has been assumed in the basic variables.