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PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION OF A FUZZY DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR THE ECONOMIC CALCULUS IN RADIOACTIVE WASTE MANAGEMENT

机译:放射性废物管理中经济演算模糊决策支持系统的实际实施

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The objective is to derive contingency factors for evaluating in a realistic way the costs of first-of-the-kind projects in RWM. Two factors are considered in practice, respectively called the P- and the T-factor. The P-factor represents the uncertainties of the project induced by its still incomplete advancement; the T-factor represents the uncertainties caused by the still insufficient technological maturity on which the project is based. A previous conceptual paper concentrated mainly on implementing progressive implication rules of the Goguen type with the two contingency factors as outputs. Input variables for P and T are given on relative scales. The assumption is made that technology expert and project specialists in RWM could provide this information. In the more advanced version discussed in this paper, fuzzy logic is also used front-end for obtaining the two inputs in the course of peer reviews of technology-experts and project-specialists. To that aim, the semantic opinions and past experience of the latter are expressed in the form of conditional and unconditional rules taking a credibility index into account. The objective of this extension of the approach is to have a fully operational and validated Fuzzy Decision Support System (FDSS). The disposal of high-level radioactive waste in a deep repository is used for illustration.
机译:目的是导出以现实方式评估RWM中的一体项目成本的应急因素。在实践中考虑了两个因素,分别称为p-和t因素。 p族代表了其仍然不完整的进步引起的项目的不确定性; T型代表了该项目基于仍然不足的技术成熟度引起的不确定性。先前的概念纸主要集中在实现Goguen类型的逐步意蕴规则,其中包括两个应急因素作为产出。 P和T的输入变量在相对尺度上给出。假设RWM技术专家和项目专家可以提供这些信息。在本文中讨论的更先进的版本中,模糊逻辑也用于前端,用于获得技术专家和项目专家的对等课程中的两个输入。为此目的,后者的语义意见和过去经验是以条件和无条件规则的形式表达,以应对可信度指数。该方法延伸的目的是具有完全运行和验证的模糊决策支持系统(FDS)。在深度存储库中处理高级放射性废物用于说明。

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