POSTURBANISIM: AN EMPERICAL ANALYSIS OF URBAN MULTI-NODAL MODEL FOR NORTHEAST OHIO

摘要

This paper describes three scenarios testing the relationship between sprawl, vehicular transportation, and the resulting air pollution in Cleveland Metropolitan area. The first scenario assumes a continuation of existing population dispersion trends with a predominant single major urban center in Cleveland. In this case we predicted a rise in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) of 34% in 2050. The second scenario that applies a multi-nodal configuration of high density residential clusters with an extensive transit system showed a marginal improvement over the first scenario. The last scenario investigated the impact of a social and economic collapse when disposable income is reduced, freeway lanes are unfit for use, and population is living close to employment clusters and incapable of traveling between centers. This scenario showed that if we do not pay serious attention to solving the problems of sprawl, it is possible that suburbia could collapse and with it the social structure we know it today. Despite the extensive body of literature on the subject, the authors found that many of the current suppositions may not always hold true. Without replacing all automobile stock with low-emitting vehicles in the future, increasing urban densities may reduce traffic speeds and consequently, increase vehicular greenhouse and toxic emissions. The research also showed that sprawl as a phenomenon may be irreversible and simple fixes may not be able to solve the problems associated with it.