Limits on Sardine Catches and the Portuguese Processing Fish Industry. A System Dynamics Study

摘要

Some data about the recent evolution of sardina pilchardus stocks along the Portuguese coast indicates a potential danger of exhaustion. Since the Portuguese fish processing industry is totally dependent on sardine catches, an impact evaluation of the foreseeable restrictions was necessary. An integrated system dynamics model of the supply and demand of sardine and of the production of canned sardine was developed and tested with historical data, and three different scenarios were explored. The system dynamics sub-model of industrial production assumes that sardine price is the major variable affecting the industry performance. The simulation results provide information on how the different groups of companies will behave, and help put in perspective the expectable social and economical effects.