Internet futures: growing market intelligence to allow telecoms operators to seize the opportunities of the information age

摘要

With the introduction of new access technologies in carrier networks, as well as the expected expansion of the bandwidth to the end user, telecoms operators are triggering extensive business analysis to understand and hopefully anticipate the evolution in total bandwidth demand. In the face of great uncertainty in peak IP traffic forecasts and the need for significant investments in network facilities, it is vital for decision-makers to have the tools that will help to manage the risks related to these investments. The challenge for modellers here is to conceive the Internet as a complex system of convergence where the combination of humans, technology and their interactions are responsible for the future development path. In that respect, we have taken a socio-technical perspective to break the perceived complexity down to a mode where behaviours can be simulated dynamically over time. The objective of this model is to estimate bandwidth demand by sizing the Internet market evolution in terms of the numbers and types of subscribers. This paper[1] details the soft-variables and relationships that have been used within a System Dynamics model to create a seamless environment, in which to explore potential market scenarios and test various strategies so as to optimise customer retention and profit from the point of view of an ISP.