A system dynamics modelling approach for assessing health effect impact as a result of launching a new nicotine product in a market

摘要

Tobacco use is a major public health concern, and is linked to approximately 6 million deaths per year worldwide. In recent years, new products (next generation products; NGPs) have emerged, which have the potential to pose a reduced health risk to consumers. NGPs include tobacco heated products, smokeless tobacco and e-cigarettes. In 2012 the US Food and Drug Administration suggested the use of mathematical models as tools for assessing the impact, in terms of population health outcomes, of releasing new nicotine or tobacco products. British American Tobacco in collaboration with Ventana Systems UK, has developed a population model based on system dynamics methodology to project the potential health impact of launching a new nicotine or tobacco product in a market.