Perception and handling of complex problems in dynamic settings - three cases of relevance to military command and crisis management

摘要

Command of military operations requires leaders and teams who are able to make decisions and respond in an appropriate, timely manner even in highly uncertain situations. The degree of situational uncertainty has continued to increase as military requirements have evolved in response to changing conditions around the world and advances in information systems that have made more information available. To provide a basis for better understanding of the dynamics of operations, we suggest an approach linking Effects Based Operations (EBO) modelling and analysis with System Dynamics (SD) principles, yielding valuable insights in the complexity of modern warfare and conflict resolution. To illustrate our approach, we present the following dynamic cases: 1) operational logistics, 2) strategic investments, and 3) crisis management.