A model of selected ridership forecasting techniques with a limited database-a case study the central coast diegan

摘要

Central to the authorization of an urban transport project is the development of a credible prjection of ridership. Statistical databases are often either lacking or questionable. This paper expamines the techniques employed in such an environment by detailing the methodology used to forecast ridership for an extension of passenger train service to San Luis Obispo, California, in the San Diego/Los Angeles ubran corridor. Many arguments implied a strong latent demnad for this ervice. Ridership projections were constructed to evaluate the feasibility of different services levels. The statistical analysis was predicated on historical passenger rail traffic patterns, orignin/destination surveys and the assumption that ridership is population-driven. Data were available with respoect to the impact of additional train service, arrival and departure times and the opening of new stations. These relationships were used to modify the projections further. Once the passenger counts were determined, revenue estimates were made. Projected revenues were then evaluated against the standard of short-run aviodable costs to determine economic feastibility. This paper provides a detailed analysis of the steps outlined above.