A probabilistic continuum damage model is presented to predict the failure probability of thin fabric reinforced mortars, used as outside renderings. In the nonlocal damage model the damage threshold is considered as a random variable. The failure probability is predicted by performing several finite element calculations of different Monte Carlo simulations of the initial damage state. The distribution parameters characterizing the initial damage are determined by a best-fit to the frequency distribution of tensile strength and fracture energy in tensile loading. In order to verify the model, resistance distributions of numerical simulations are compared to the experimentally obtained resistance distribution of reinforced specimens with different sizes and of specimens submitted to a three point bending loading. Finally numerical results of the deterministic and probabilistic approach are compared, including the size effect.
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