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Statistical Downscaling of Daily Precipitation Process at an Ungaged Location in the Context of Climate Change

机译:在气候变化背景下,在一个不营地区的日常降水过程统计俯视

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Downscaling methods have been proposed for establishing the linkages between the large-scale climate variables given by GCMs and the observed characteristics of hydrologic variables at a local site. These downscaling methods, however, are not suitable for dealing with cases where the hydrologic data at the location of interest are limited (a partially-gauged site) or not available (an ungauged site). The downscaling of a hydrologic process such as the daily precipitation for such cases remains still a crucial challenge for water resources planning and management in practice. The present study proposes therefore a statistical downscaling (SD) approach to establishing accurately the linkages between the climate variables given by GCM outputs and the "estimated" daily precipitation characteristics at a location of interest where the precipitation data are limited or unavailable. More specifically, the suggested SD procedure is based on a combination of two components: (i) a regional stochastic method for reconstructing the unmeasured daily precipitation series at the ungauged site; and (ii) a SD model for describing the linkage between the constructed daily precipitation series and the climatic predictors given by GCM outputs. The feasibility and accuracy of the proposed SD procedure was assessed based on the NCEP re-analysis and observed daily precipitation data available from a network of 62 raingages in South Korea. Results of this assessment have indicated that the proposed procedure could provide comparable results as those given by the downscaling using real observed precipitation data at the same local site.
机译:已经提出了用于在局部地点在GCMS给出的大规模气候变量与局部地点的文化变量的观察特征之间建立较低的方法。然而,这些缩小方法不适用于处理感兴趣位置的水文数据的情况是有限的(部分测量的部位)或不可用(未吞吐位点)。水文过程的俯视如日常沉淀,这种情况仍然是水资源规划和管理在实践中的关键挑战。因此,本研究提出了一种统计较低的尺寸(SD)方法,以准确地建立GCM输出给出的气候变量与沉淀数据的位置的“估计”日降水特性,其中降水数据有限或不可用。更具体地,建议的SD程序基于两种组分的组合:(i)用于重建未测量的未测量的现场降水系列的区域随机方法; (ii)用于描述构造的日降水系列与GCM输出给出的气候预测器之间的连杆的SD模型。根据NCEP再分析评估所提出的SD程序的可行性和准确性,并观察到韩国62个RAINAGE网络的每日降水数据。该评估的结果表明,所提出的程序可以提供可比较的结果,因为在同一当地站点使用真实观察到的降水数据的次规提供的次要效果。

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